000 AXNT20 KNHC 080443 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED AT 08/0000 UTC ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE PLACEMENT IS TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 29W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM 90W-94W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N24W 7N37W 9N47W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA ALONG 29N87W 27N92W TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 24N95W ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE THE SE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE ABOVE FRONT E OF 87W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NNW ALONG 17N82W THEN NNE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 79W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N E OF 79W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W TO BEYOND 32N72W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 59W-74W CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 60W-67W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 26W-59W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE