000 AXNT20 KNHC 071051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 10N FROM 41W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A SHARPE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N23W 7N34W 9N43W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 20W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ALONG 29W/30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT MYERS FLORIDA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA. BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N94W MOVING S TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W NNE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 76W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N74W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W 28N76W TO BEYOND 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE/SW ALONG 32N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N64W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 21W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE