000 AXNT20 KNHC 070534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A SHARPE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N21W 4N28W 6N41W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 21W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S TO OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ALONG 30W/31W AND WILL MOVING INTO THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N95W MOVING S TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 19W S OF 21N. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COAST OF BELIZE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NNE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W 29N78W TO BEYOND 32N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE/SW ALONG 32N61W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N63W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 21W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE