000 AXNT20 KNHC 062356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY AND PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 84W/85W S OF 23N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N21W 5N35W 6N43W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40/50 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WEST OF 90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS IS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N81W ACROSS TAMPA BAY TO 24N85W. HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA WSW TO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE N GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW...CLOUD LINES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS MOST THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA IS ALSO AFFECTING THE W ATLC WEST OF 78W. A RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 70W-78W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF 75W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NE/SW FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N62 TO PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 52W/53W. AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 21N32W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD ALONG 32W COVERS THE E ATLC BETWEEN 25W-40W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. $$ GR