000 AXNT20 KNHC 061032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N23W 8N38W 5N47W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING S OVER E TEXAS TO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 29N96W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO NE MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N W OF 86W. WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM OVER S FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO N OF 13N FROM 77W-86W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N15N BETWEEN 81W-84W. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ OVER S COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS IS GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 74W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS KEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 29N W OF 77W WITH AN UPPER HIGH JUST NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W AND A RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 70W-77W. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W 29N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE/SW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 45W-70W WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N64W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 22N31W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 22W-45W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE