000 AXNT20 KNHC 051804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATED SPECIFICALLY JUST TO THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 22N...OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 67W/68W OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA ALSO ARE NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N12W 8N16W 8N32W 8N37W 7N48W 6N52W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 10N35W 8N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N43W 8N54W 7N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 87W...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23.5N 80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS WREAKING HAVOC WITH THE SUMMER SUNSHINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE AROUND THIS LOW CENTER FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD ABOUT 400 NM FROM LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...IN A 120 NM WIDE CORRIDOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA FROM 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF CUBA TO THE WATERS IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PURELY NORTHERLY...THE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LOW CENTER AND THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VERACRUZ MEXICO HIGH CENTER. INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 20N97W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF VERACRUZ. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE ITCZ...AND ENDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 9.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN SOME CELLS IN EASTERN PANAMA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION STARTED OUT 5 HOURS AGO BEING CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE GULF OF URABA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... YESTERDAY'S MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 31N46W HAS SHIFTED LOCATIONS NOW TO 30N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE CENTER TO 26N48W AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N60W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR FOR AT LEAST 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 21N36W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE HIGH CENTER BEYOND 32N32W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W AND THE TROUGH WITH THE 30N44W LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO GET ITSELF ORGANIZED NEAR 28N24W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF PORTUGAL OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 39N13W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N30W TO 37N43W TO BERMUDA AND 33N74W. $$ MT