000 AXNT20 KNHC 051034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 31W-35W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 31W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W 20 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE...BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 23N MOVING WNW 20 KT. WAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 72W-76W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N16W 10N26W 7N42W 6N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-31W AND FROM 35W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 48W-55W W OF 70W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W. A NEAR STATIONARY BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WED AND RETURN TO FLORIDA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE W OVER THE PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 15N FROM 71W-86W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA FROM 75W-82W. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND SEVERELY LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ JUST S OF PANAMA. THIS IS GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 72W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 11N81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 72W WITH A NARROW RIDGE JUST TO THE E WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTED DOWN ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO 29N. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 31N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-65W WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N63W AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N46W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY UPPER AIR...ONLY CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 23N32W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 24W-40W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE