000 AXNT20 KNHC 050544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE...BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 22N MOVING WNW 20-25 KT. WAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N34W 8N43W 6N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 26W-45W AND WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 6N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE FAR E GULF ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER... AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT DEVELOP INLAND OVER FLORIDA DUE TO THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE UPPER FLOW SURROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WED AND RETURN TO FLORIDA AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE W OVER THE PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 15N FROM 73W-86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 74W-82W INCLUDING HAITI AND JAMAICA. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THUS GIVING THE AREA S OF 12N SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 74W WITH A NARROW RIDGE JUST TO THE E WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTED DOWN JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO 30N. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 29N BETWEEN 72W-79W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W-65W WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N63W AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N46W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY UPPER AIR...ONLY CONVECTION OVER THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 23N31W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 24W-40W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED N OF THE REGION. AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE