000 AXNT20 KNHC 032341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 25W S OF THE CAPE VERDES MOVING W 15 KT. AFTER A STRING OF RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVES THE PAST TWO TO LEAVE AFRICA HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. QUIKSCAT FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A BROAD CIRCULATION THOUGH THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED AXIS FROM SATELLITE. CONVECTION HAS ALSO DISSIPATED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL LEAVE W AFRICA TOMORROW FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE. CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS 38W/39W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE THU WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER S OF 15N. FOR NOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 5N-9N THOUGH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE ON WED AS THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER TROUGH. WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM 10N62.5W TO 19N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 58W-63W WITH OTHER TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF 18N58W. STRONG SW SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD IMPACT PUERTO RICO MIDDAY TUE WITH A SURGE IN TRADES BEHIND THE WAVE... POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED. LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 11N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W 15-20 KT. A FLAREUP OF TSTMS OVER PANAMA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA MIGHT BE RELATED TO THE WEAK WAVE. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. A FEW TSTMS ARE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE EPAC ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N16W 6N42W 10N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 18W-43W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWARD THRU SE LOUISIANA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE ARE QUITE CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW GULF STATES W OF LOUISIANA AND OVER SW FLORIDA. DIVERGENCE FROM A STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS ENHANCING NW GULF ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND GENERAL NE WINDS OVER S FLORIDA FAVORING THE SW FLORIDA CONVECTION. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION... ADVECTED FROM AS FAR AWAY AS A RATHER ACTIVE ITCZ IN THE EPAC. RAINS CONTINUE TO FAR IN PARCHED REGIONS OF S TEXAS EASTWARD THRU LOUISIANA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN AVERAGE THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. INCREASING RAIN IS LIKELY FOR FLORIDA FOR LATE TOMORROW AND BEYOND AS UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT ELY WINDS COVER THE GULF AND THIS SHOULDN'T CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE AREA SAVE THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS WHICH HAS SOME UPPER RIDGING. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 65W-85W OVER WATER IS KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET AS ANY SIGNIFICANT TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO LAND AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... DIMINISHING WITH TIME INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ IS STILL DEPRESSED WELL TO THE S OF AVERAGE AS IT HAS LEFT THE SW CARIBBEAN AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE AREA.. KEEPING TRADES QUITE BRISK. ANOTHER TRADE SURGE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD BEHIND THE E CARIBBEAN WAVE WITH A BOUT OF GALES POSSIBLE FOR WED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TSTMS FOR THE W CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN W OF 80W FOR LATE THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N77W OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE DRIFTING SSW. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE SSE OF THE LOW FROM 24N-27.5N BETWEEN 72W-78W. NARROW RIDGE IS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR BERMUDA WITH LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS NEAR AND W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TROUGH IS A LITTLE FARTHER E FROM 31N60W SSW TO NEAR 21N63W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPANDING IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W S OF 20N WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ENHANCING TSTMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. LARGE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR 29N47W WITH ITS CIRCULATION COVERING THE BASIN N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-58W ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. RIDGING IS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 34W WITH A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 24N34W. TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NE ATLC ALONG 20N23W TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS CONFIGURATION IS KEEPING PRESSURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THE NE ATLC AND DISPLACING A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER WESTWARD THAN AVERAGE. 1030 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N43W WITH STRONG TRADES IN THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 35W. ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS SCANT THOUGH UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM NW SENEGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 16N42W. $$ BLAKE