000 AXNT20 KNHC 031805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N36W 5N37W 2N37W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE ITCZ. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST RELATED TO THIS WAVE. THE CLOSEST MEANINGFUL ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N58W 12N59W 8N59W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THIS WAVE IS FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 11N...REACHING WESTERN COLOMBIA BEFORE ENTERING EASTERN PANAMA ALONG 76W...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 13N17W 12N20W 6N35W 5N39W 5N45W 8N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 16N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N24W 7N33W 5N42W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N/33N FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EAST TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS NEAR SAN ANGELO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW RUNS ALONG 94W/95W FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COASTAL TEXAS SQUALL LINE WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 30N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 29N95W TO 28N97W NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N85W 28N89W 30N91W IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N58W 12N59W 8N59W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...CUTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER HAITI AND DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE ALONG 94W/95W COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM ANOTHER RIDGE...ALONG 60W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 60W TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SURFACE WINDS ANNOUNCES EASTERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT...IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA IN 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N77W... WITH A TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N77W 29N70W 35N63W ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIXED INTO THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N75W 26N76W 26N77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N72W. THE NUMBER ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 29N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 400 NM TO THE WEST...AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF AFRICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 29N45W LOW CENTER...FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N21W TO 21N23W. $$ MT