000 AXNT20 KNHC 031049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 36W-39W. W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE V-SHAPE ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND TSTM CHANCES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE S OF 15N. TUE LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN PUERTO RICO. A GALE MAY OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE BLOWUP OF TSTMS N OF 17N THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MORNING TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 92W-96W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 5N40W 10N58W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ALL OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT SELY FLOW. CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26W-29W BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 85W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW NEAR 20N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 10N65W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT. EXPECT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1031 HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N45W. RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 50W TO THE AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 56W/57W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 70W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 38W-65W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W. $$ FORMOSA