000 AXNT20 KNHC 030549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 33W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-36W. W ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL-ORGANIZED WAVE THAT HAS A DISTINCTIVE V-SHAPE ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF TSTM ACTIVITY...THOUGH WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND TSTM CHANCES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE LEEWARDS BY TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE S OF 15N. TUE LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN PUERTO RICO. A GALE MAY OCCUR NEAR/BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR WED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 74W/75W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE BLOWUP OVER TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 18N AND OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHORTLY AND DIE OUT OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 4N40W 6N50W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 12W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 26W-28W. ALL OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SMALL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT ELY FLOW. CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AS WELL AS OVER S LOUISIANA...HAS DISSIPATED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF...TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 85W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW NEAR 20N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 10N65W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT. EXPECT A NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DOMINATING SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS 1031 HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N45W. RELATIVELY LIGHT ELY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-68W. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AFRICAN DUST E OF 50W TO THE AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 56W/57W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 70W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 71W-74W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 38W-65W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 38W. $$ FORMOSA