000 AXNT20 KNHC 021759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ON TOP OF THIS WAVE IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW IN PART OF THE CLOUD FIELD AROUND THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 10N...EXITING NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL COLOMBIA MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 5N IN INTERIOR COLOMBIA BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED AT ALL TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA... FROM BELIZE TO HONDURAS JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS... AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THERE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 13N15W 9N20W 7N24W 7N40W 8N50W 8N56W 9N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOME CELLS IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 61.5W AND 63.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N13W 9N16W 9N19W 8N21W 7N25W 6N32W 4N35W 7N42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE VICINITY OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 88W. THIS WHOLE MASS OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N101W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 88W...AND OVER FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N80W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N84W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR FORT MYERS TO THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA AREA ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FLORIDA ARE WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY NOT BE RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER...ABOUT 175 NM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS ONE LOW CENTER...ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 20N108W...TO 11N102W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...CUTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE ALONG 94W/95W COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM ANOTHER RIDGE...FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TOWARD PUERTO RICO...COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR SURFACE WINDS ANNOUNCES EASTERLY WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND SEAS FROM 10 TO 15 KT...IN THE AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 12 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N WEST OF 65W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 8 TO 13N FT IN EASTERLY SWELLS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 84W E. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NUMBER ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N40W 20N42W 15N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 600 NM AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE 25N47W LOW CENTER. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVES WEST OF 26W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXITS THE GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSES FLORIDA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME OF THIS FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN-SEA WINDWARD PASSAGE TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT MOVES TOWARD THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N47W LOW CENTER. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N47W LOW CENTER...FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 26N27W BEYOND 32N20W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 31N22W BEYOND 33N19W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 32N17W 26N31W 28N40W. $$ MT