000 AXNT20 KNHC 021046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 68W-72W. HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 81W-89W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 6N30W 7N40W 11N51W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 27W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY 10 KT ELY FLOW. ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ADVECTING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N104W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 25-30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N65W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 75W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. A SMALL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-66W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W. WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA