000 AXNT20 KNHC 020010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. BEST WAVE SIGNATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA... PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 68W-71W. HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS AND E NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 7N30W 12N47W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 6N-8N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 22W-25W... AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N WITH MAINLY 10 KT ELY FLOW. ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ADVECTING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC FROM 23N-37N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 86W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS AND E NICARAGUA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N87W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N65W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 27N78W 22N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 32N66W 24N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 67W-72W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS W OF 75W. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. A SMALL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-66W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W. WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA