000 AXNT20 KNHC 011046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 26N73W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS N OF 17N TO OVER THE BAHAMAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N23W 7N40W 9N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-16W...FROM 18W-22W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 8N37W-10N41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 42W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVER CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W NORTH CAROLINA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 79W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N FROM 71W-79W. THIS AREA IS RATHER DRY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 12N41W EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO 29N65W THEN NE TO BEYOND 33N61W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N FROM 65W-70W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N FROM 32W-54W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N39W TO A PAIR OF SMALL MID/UPPER LOWS NEAR 26N43W AND 21N50W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W EXTENDING W TO 14N26W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM 10N-27N E OF 35W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ TO THE S AND LIMITING CLOUDS/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE