000 AXNT20 KNHC 010528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 14N MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 27N71W MOVING WNW 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND A WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 12.5N74.5W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N23W 7N46W 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-20W AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 28W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO E TEXAS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 79W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N FROM 71W-79W. THIS AREA IS RATHER DRY WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N FROM 63W-72W WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 77W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 27N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N50W EXTENDING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO TO 30N65W THEN NE BEYOND 33N62W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N FROM 63W-72W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N FROM 32W-54W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N38W TO A PAIR OF SMALL MID/UPPER LOWS NEAR 25N43W AND 22N49W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W EXTENDING W TO 14N27W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE