000 AXNT20 KNHC 301751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 10N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 20N MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATED TO THE WAVE JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS IS STILL AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO WHERE DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N25W 6N36W 5N45W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 32W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW/TROUGH ARE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W. THIS COMBINATION IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD AFFECT NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N97W SEWD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. A RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A 1018 MB NEAR 28N93W. A NEW CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF...VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS DOTTED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N88W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 80W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE AREA ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS AREA IS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER WESTERN PANAMA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM A HIGH LOCATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N53W DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 26N74W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N73W NEWD TO 25N66W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N53W COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY EAST TO WEST ALONG 24N/25W WEST OF 55W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC... INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W. OF NOTE...JUNE IS ENDING WITH THE FORMATION OF ALBERTO...THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON. ON AVERAGE...THERE IS A TROPICAL STORM EVERY OTHER JUNE. $$ GR