000 AXNT20 KNHC 300512 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IS MOVING INTO DRIER AIR. AS SUCH...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N26W 6N46W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-46W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-30W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING SE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 87W. THIS COMBINATION IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND NW YUCATAN. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1020 MB HIGH INLAND OVER N MISSISSIPPI AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N87W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 80W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 65W-80W. THIS AREA IS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE S COAST OF CUBA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN 59W-65W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS PREVIOUSLY TIED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER BERMUDA HAS BECOME WEAK ELONGATED NOW EXTENDING THROUGH 33N64W SE TO NEAR 28N63W AND MOVING NORTHWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THIS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING NOW FROM 27N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N64W S TO NEAR 20N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-26N. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 15N54W COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 26N FROM 35W-63W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF 21N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-64W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF THE REGION DIPPING S TO 27N FROM 35W-59W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE