000 AXNT20 KNHC 300000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 31W-36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THESE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THESE ISLANDS UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N30W 7N50W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 34N91W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WITH MAINLY 5-10 KT ELY FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 23N93W 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS W OF 85W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 78W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-78W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N64W 21N68W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 35N67W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-77W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W. $$ FORMOSA