000 AXNT20 KNHC 291104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 20N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W TO THE MEXICO COAST. EVEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 6N27W 6N30W 7N45W 6N49W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N41W 6N49W 7N53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH...NOW COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR ARE EAST OF 90W AND MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THE FLOW BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 33N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER. THE PRECIPITATION FORMERLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS BEEN DISSIPATING STEADILY WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N AROUND HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ONE CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND ONE IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/ EASTERN HONDURAS. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 33N68W LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 28N68W TO 23N70W. THE 63W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 33N68W-T0-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W IN AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...MOSTLY FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N29W TO 30N29W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 36N29W 30N29W TROUGH AND THE 33N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. $$ MT