000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 19N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AND WITHIN 90 NM TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 17N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW RATHER THAN TO THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N16W 6N26W 5N29W 4N44W 5N47W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N25W 5N40W 7N54W 9N59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF INTERIOR MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST 25 PERCENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N ACCOMPANIES THE NORTHERN END OF THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A LITTLE BIT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM SOUTHERN HAITI WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF 78W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 32N68W LOW CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W TO 23N68W. THE 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W-T0-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W IN AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W... INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. TWO CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N30W TO 32N33W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 35N30W 32N33W TROUGH AND THE 32N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. $$ MT