000 AXNT20 KNHC 281750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 11N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BARBADOS IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 23 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130/160 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 89 FROM 24N-30N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NE HONDURAS. THE EPAC ITCZ AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW...BOTH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO 22N68W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N64W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-72W. ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 66W/67W ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N38W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICS WEST OF 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OCEAN EAST OF 50W. ACCORDING TO THE 28/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 50W. $$ GR