000 AXNT20 KNHC 281742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND MOVED INLAND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N AND MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N36W 2N46W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N20W 7N25W 7N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 6N20W 4N30W 3N35W 4N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE CONTINENT OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE APPROACHING 30N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH 30N89W 27N92W 24N93W IS A DEFAULT FEATURE IN THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO 91W/92W...ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE EL SALVADOR PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ CENTRAL AMERICA RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N62W LOW CENTER TO 20N68W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W...TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE OCCURRING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS TROUGH ARE WESTWARD-MOVING. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...AND IN WESTERN PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 33N48W LOW CENTER TO A 30N62W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO 20N68W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N59W 26N65A TROPICAL WAVWW 20N69W. $$ MT