000 AXNT20 KNHC 272302 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INLAND OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MOREHEAD CITY WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW INLAND JUST TO THE N NEAR ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT TO NE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA TO BEYOND NEW YORK MOVING N DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWARD PATH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON UPPER AIR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF LATER TONIGHT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 10N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE GULF FROM 23N-30N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA BUT ARE MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W COVERING THE AREA TO 73W ANCHORED NEAR 11N80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 78W IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SE CUBA FROM 74.5W-77.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO OVER PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 27N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 75W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS NOW N OF 30N. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N60W SW TO 23N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N41W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 29W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS 26N24W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE