000 AXNT20 KNHC 270618 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS... ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD...AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE/ CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 25N78W. ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THIS AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION BECAME WEAKER AND/OR DISSIPATED. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WEST OF 75W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N12W 8N20W 7N26W 7N34W 8N37W 8N47W 8N50W 7N56W 7N60W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W 21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N51W TO 28N55W TO 25N60W TO 20N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE. $$ MT