000 AXNT20 KNHC 262330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF...THE SE US INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE W ATLC W OF 80W WITH A 1010 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N84W TO 23N91W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 73W-84W AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO AS FAR N AS NEW ENGLAND. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH EMBEDDED SWIRLS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 44W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE APPEARANCE THAT THE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 9N45W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-26W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 9N FROM 29W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF WHICH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ANCHORED JUST N OF ACAPULCO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W COVERING THE AREA TO 66W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 80W AND S OF 11N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER S GEORGIA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W. A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 22N FROM 46W-67W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N50W ALONG 25N58W TO 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE TROUGH FROM 53W-62W AND N OF 27N FROM 46W-54W. AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N38W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 29W-48W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 29W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY 1037 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE