000 AXNT20 KNHC 261752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH A COUPLE OF 1010 MB LOWS CENTERED ONE NEAR 29N84.5W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 30N-83.5W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA BUT MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. EVEN IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 29N84W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 87W/88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF MAINLY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THE BROAD LOW PRES NEAR OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL PRODUCE STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND ALONG A LINE FROM 30N78W TO 22N71W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LOCATED N OF 21N FROM 45W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 31N51W TO 21N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 120-140 NM SE OF THE SURFACE BETWEEN 55W-64W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N39W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG 38W/39W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1040 MB CENTER IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. $$ GR