000 AXNT20 KNHC 260610 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N81W INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE CLOSING ITSELF OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 27N77W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL ARE MORE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST THAN ON THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO THE SURROUNDING FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF 24.5N. AREAS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE NEARBY FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N AT THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 76.5W AND 78.5W. LINGERING BUT WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS IN BETWEEN THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE ISLAND OF MAYAGUANA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 29N73W BEYOND 32N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HAITI ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 6N45W...ABOUT 975 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN A LINE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N14W 8N20W 9N39W 6N48W 6N57W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 30N52W-TO- GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF FLORIDA AND COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 38N BETWEEN 44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. $$ MT