000 AXNT20 KNHC 260001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR COCOA FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 31M82W 28N81W 24N82W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IS N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 35W-43W. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 7N43W. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MOIST UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING SATELLITE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-78W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N20W 9N40W 6N50W 6N60W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS THE 1010 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 10 KT CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF W OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 83W-90W. 10 KT NLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N87W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. EXPECT... ACTIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N83W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 30N54W TO 25N60W 22N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. $$ FORMOSA