000 AXNT20 KNHC 251718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM AND VERO BEACH NEAR 27N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH THE LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN 78W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THUS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N24W 9N36W 4N53W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE 1010 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N TO 68W. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING S OF 11N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 19N68W-29N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 21N FROM 46W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N55W. A WEAK 1022 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO 23N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N FROM 46W-55W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 26N51W-21N60W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N33W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 50W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NE ATLC NEAR ZONAL FLOW. $$ WALLACE