000 AXNT20 KNHC 250605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE REACHED THE MAINLAND U.S.A. WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY... AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N51W...ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO 36N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N15W 7N22W 7N33W 7N36W 6N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 6N24W 9N34W 6N42W...AND SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... IT LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS TRYING TO FORM NEAR 28N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...BUT MUCH OF IT FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. THE NORTHERN PART OF A 92W/93W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN THE WESTERN GUATEMALA BORDER AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THIS ARE FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA. THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND CURVE TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 25N69W TO 28N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIVE AND WELL IN THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 35N52W TO 32N56W 29N58W 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE 34W/35W TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. $$ MT