000 AXNT20 KNHC 242342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W OR JUST NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. A 1022 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N50W OR ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN 48W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 30W-36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA... INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 6N40W 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N93W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 85W-95W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W DUE TO THE 1012 MB LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE SAME SIZE IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N88W. FURTHER S... UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 20N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 20N WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS S OF 20N. EXPECT... ACTIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 79W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 30N50W TO 26N60W 20N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 57W-67W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N37W DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 34N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. $$ FORMOSA