000 AXNT20 KNHC 241758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N77W OR JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. A 1021 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N49W OR ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...COVERING FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THAT ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS ALSO PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W/90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 7N33W 6N45W 6N53W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS...THE N GULF COAST AND THE SE PORTION OF U.S. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN STILL DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE GULF EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80N-82W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12.5N83W AND COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER DRY AIR IS SEEN OVER CUBA WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN... INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COAST WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED INCREASING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THIS ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WITH ONE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER ONE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS IN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N50W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 28W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC. $$ GR