000 AXNT20 KNHC 240627 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W/68W MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 9N13W 7N22W 8N28W 8N31W 5N44W 6N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 8N30W 6N36W 4N43W 2N51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N116W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW CENTER NEAR 20N111W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANY THE 25N98W NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THE 25N98W LOW CENTER TO THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 23N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W/68W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. THE FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IS CYCLONIC...WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI. THIS WHOLE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 34N48W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 26N45W 14N52W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 27N25W. $$ MT