000 AXNT20 KNHC 231105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 62W/63W MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 631W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N12W 8N23W 7N28W 5N42W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N15W 7N27W 6N35W 5N46W 10N61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N114W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW CENTER NEAR 20N110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 23N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 62W/63W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MORE AND IS REALLY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE BELIZE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO 34N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF NEAR 26N74W ABOUT 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 36N47W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 28N48W 17N49W 13N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W... AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W. $$ MT