000 AXNT20 KNHC 230633 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MORE PRECIPITATION COMES WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 9N23W 8N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N4W 3N8W 6N11W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N15W 8N21W 8N24W 3N41W 6N51W 9N59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N113W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW CENTER NEAR 20N109W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N106W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 24N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 24N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 59W/60W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND FROM 12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...SPILLING INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34N72W 28N73W 20N73W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF NEAR 25N75W JUST OFF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N68W TO 25N58W TO 34N59W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 36N48W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 28N49W 20N50W 15N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W...AND FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N8W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 29N25W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W. $$ MT