000 AXNT20 KNHC 221038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 13N56W-10N61W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 5N31W 7N49W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING N OVER THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N86W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W-26N69W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 17N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM 31W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINS FROM 30N45W TO BEYOND 33N43W OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYERED OF AFRICAN DUST NOW COVERS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 35W-60W. $$ WALLACE