000
AXNT20 KNHC 220443
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT REMAINS UNORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. 
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N30W 6N59W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 
41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-32W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
FROM 46W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE 
REMAINING AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 28W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH 
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W 
ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 
86W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE W COAST OF 
FLORIDA ARE DISSIPATING LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 28N W OF 
84W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING N OVER 
THE FAR S GULF S OF 23N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE 
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST 
TO OVER TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W 
AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST 
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 17N FROM 80W-89W INCLUDING PORTIONS 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W ATLC N 
OF 27N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N OVER THE W ATLC AND 
NARROW N OF 23N BETWEEN 71W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 
22N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 
22N73W-26N70W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM 
THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N71W TO BEYOND 32N66W. UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE 
MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW 
ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N43W WITH THE 
UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM 30W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION 
REMAINS BUT IS N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE 
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W COVERING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W 
ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF 
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE 
LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N 
WITH CLEARING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS.  

$$
WALLACE