000 AXNT20 KNHC 220013 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IS N OF THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED PARTLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N27W 7N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 12W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N93W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 21N. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 21N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 71W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N76W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N11W. $$ FORMOSA