000 AXNT20 KNHC 211755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT...WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OFF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE 21/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO SEEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 5N30W 7N40W 7N51W 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N EAST OF 20W ARE PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF AFRICA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ENE ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF THE KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY SHOWER FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 76W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM OVER FLORIDA TO 74W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N68W SW ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 66W-69W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 65W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE REST OF THE ATLC AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM 27W-60W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDS ALONG 31N42W 24N45W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ GR