000 AXNT20 KNHC 211115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION F OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 2N FROM 44W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA FROM 75W/77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N67W-18N75W- 15N80W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 4N30W 6N41W 7N51W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US OVER FLORIDA N OF 24N E OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF THE KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W NW TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 67W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM OVER FLORIDA TO 75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N69W SW ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 66W-77W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM 27W-61W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N WITH CLEARING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE