000
AXNT20 KNHC 210436
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK 
BROAD MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF 
AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS 
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS 
NOT ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 
71W-75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE NE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 62W-76W INCLUDING THE 
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND SE 
BAHAMAS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS NOW 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH 
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINING VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. DEEP 
CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N21W 4N33W 7N45W 9N62W. 
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 54W ACROSS THE 
ATLC. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 90W 
COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS 
TO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS 
PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US CLIPPING NE FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH INLAND FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA 
AND GEORGIA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. ALSO AT THE 
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THUS 
LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY SHOWER FREE TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
NEAR 11N75W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N 
FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER HIGH IS 
JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. ANY OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ALBEIT MUCH NARROWER 
THAN LAST NIGHT COVERING ONLY THE FAR W ATLC FROM FLORIDA TO 
75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 30N69W SW TO OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 65W-79W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER 
ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST 
OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS 
FAR S AS 18N FROM 26W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG 
39W/40W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH 
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 
70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER 
OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO 
THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 
10N. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CLEARING FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  

$$
WALLACE