000 AXNT20 KNHC 202310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING THIS WAVE EASY TO LOCATE. DESPITE THE CLEAR WAVE SIGNATURE...THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS...LIKELY STRONGEST IN CONVECTION. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY BECAME ILL-DEFINED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON SOME VEERING OF WINDS AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE WAS MOVED CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC STEERING. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS EXACTLY...IT REMAINS RATHER WEAK. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N29W 7N44W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-28W AND 34W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 43W-51W POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS S TEXAS IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LINGERING N OF 28N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER WHERE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SFC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH FAIR SKIES SOUTH OF THERE WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS REGION IS IN A ZONE OF HIGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SOME SFC FORCING FROM A NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING INTENSE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. THIS BATCH OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED BUT IT WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A NARROW WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 69W-71W. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 53W-77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 35N39W TO 27N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. UPPER RIDGING IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER LOW. SAHARAN DUST IS WIDESPREAD IN THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EARLIER VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED HAZY CONDITIONS INDICATING POSSIBLE DUST CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR THE SFC TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER LIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED. $$ CANGIALOSI