000 AXNT20 KNHC 201035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N27W 7N47W 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 11W-29W AND FROM 53W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-36W AND FROM 39W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/ TEXAS FROM 32N93W TO 27N98W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER E TEXAS FROM 31N95W TO 28N99W GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 92W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA OF TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SW ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THEW YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM E LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF CLIPPING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N FROM HAITI TO E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 13N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 10N80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 28N70W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 68W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-80W. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N39W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 18N AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 33N36W TO 24N41W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N. $$ WALLACE