000 AXNT20 KNHC 200515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 37W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 57W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N18W 9N40W 9N55W 12N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/ TEXAS FROM 31N92W TO 27N98W WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 93W-97W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA OF TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC HAS ELONGATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS FORCED THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF LAST NIGHT TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 83W TO OVER FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N FROM HAITI TO CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 77W-83W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ALTHOUGH IT HAS ELONGATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY NOW EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 29N72W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N BETWEEN 66W-80W. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-57W ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N38W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 19N AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 32N35W TO 25N42W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N. $$ WALLACE