000 AXNT20 KNHC 192315 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT EMBEDDED IN SWIFT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SATELLITE REPRESENTATION AND CONSIDERING THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUITY OF THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS THE REASON FOR THE WAVE ADJUSTMENT. DESPITE THE FAIR WAVE SIGNATURE...LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. A FEW OF THE ISLAND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATING THE WAVE PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE IS ALSO STEERED BY SWIFT LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING NEAR THE AXIS WITH MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM. WHILE THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR MORE CONVECTIVE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT BASED UPON SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY OF THE PAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N28W 9N42W 14N59W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN THE NW CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 1015 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29.5N 95.4W. THIS LOW IS FAIRLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES IN THAT REGION. THESE TOTALS WILL RISE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 90W FROM 26N-30N. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY QUIET UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PRODUCING LIGHT E/SE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A FAIRLY WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW GULF...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-49W N OF 20N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THE SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1033 MB AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH CONTROLS THE SFC PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN THIS RIDGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS A SFC TROUGH. SAHARAN DUST IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. $$ CANGIALOSI