000
AXNT20 KNHC 191808
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...EXCEPT FOR METEOSAT IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 18N WEST 15 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N66W 13N62W 14N61W 17N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
NORTHWARD TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...IN PART WITH THE ITCZ
AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM 
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N11W 6N20W 6N29W 6N35W 7N49W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 
10W AND 14W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONT...IS ALONG 
29N71W 24N74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF 
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...WITH A TROUGH GOING FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/
EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA BORDERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS 
IN THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N67W 26N74W 23N78W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N 
TO 25N EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 15N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH 
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE
IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W. CYCLONIC FLOW 
AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 18N TO 38N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

$$
MT