000 AXNT20 KNHC 191041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL-DEFINED BROAD MULTILAYERED CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N54W-15N59W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH HEAVER RAIN LATER IN THE DAY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N27W 7N49W 15N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 9N W OF 9W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-23W AND FROM 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM 92W-96W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E GULF E OF 88W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF STATES. GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 82W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 76W-83W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 31N69W SW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 24N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N BETWEEN 66W-80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 60W-66W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N48W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N50W. A THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 55W THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W. $$ WALLACE