000 AXNT20 KNHC 182325 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THERE IS BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. DESPITE THE FAIR SIGNATURE...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED AHEAD ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 16N BASED UPON TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM. A BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 54W-56W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 19N. THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N28W 5N34W 9N48W 7N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-36W. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 18W N OF 2N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DIPS INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN SE TEXAS PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE GULF AND FLORIDA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC IS BACKING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS OVER SW FLORIDA WHERE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEAR 3-5 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. AT THE SURFACE...DISTANT HIGH PRES IN THE W ATLANTIC CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...A WEAK SFC HIGH MAY DEVELOP IN THE E GULF ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY IN THE W ATLANTIC BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED FROM S AMERICA AND SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG 67W AND MAY BE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A MORE IMPRESSIVE FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE AREA MAY SPREAD SOME OF ITS MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR JAMAICA. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 26N73W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SOME SFC LIFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 62W-72W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N50W. SWLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE BETWEEN 52W-59W FROM 20N-28N. FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 23W-44W. IN THE EAST ATLC...A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A DOMINATING 1035 MB BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH OF DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N42W WITH A SECONDARY HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N69W CONTROLS THE SFC PATTERN. $$ CANGIALOSI